Why the Rockies will not make the playoffs

Buzzkill. I know. Everybody's having fun, CarGo is hot, Tulo is hot, the national reporters are noting that the Rockies are "at it again." Five straight wins! Rocktober part 3! It's a great party, and I'm going to be the guy who pees in the punch. But it must be done. I have to be that guy. Who is that guy? Here are three other analogies:

1. It's like when you're in a discussion class, like something in political science or literature, and somebody starts a really awesome tangent. You know, when somebody says, "Women shouldn't be allowed to vote," and you cannot wait to just sit back, drink your ice cold Mountain Dew (or whatever expired soda you grabbed from the vending machine before class) and watch the show when people start frothing at the mouth and screaming at one another. I'm the guy who says, "Let's bring this back to the reading for today." Lame!

2. Here's one for the musicians. It's like when you're in a sectional or small rehearsal, and you decide to start playing old pep band tunes and dancing around, or you just realized it's really funny to play "Hava Nagila" on tuba. I'm the guy who says, "Come on guys, we really need to work on tuning." Double buzzkill!

3. It's like if you're really enjoying the current season of Entourage (Sunday nights on HBO!), hanging on every twist in the plot, pulling for Ari and DANA GORDON, pulling for Johnny Drama's success on his new show, and just generally excited for each new episode. Then somebody like Ryan Douglas Presley (eat your heart out) reminds you: "Hey, this season stinks. Entourage peaked after season 3, and it's been a steady and depressing decline ever since. The drug addiction storyline will be remembered as the show's fatal flaw. Seriously, how can you tell me you're enjoying this dogshit season?" Wet blanket!

So why would I be that guy, especially when it comes to the team that I love? Everybody else started gearing up for this year's version of Rocktober this week, so why didn't I? Maybe I don't want to get my own hopes up...maybe I'm preparing myself so I won't be so bummed out later on. Either way, I'm hashing out why it won't happen. But let me be clear - I hope that I am totally and unequivocally wrong. I hope the Rockies rip off 15 straight and steal headlines. I just don't think this team is built for it, and here's why:

It was the Astros

Three games of the five in the current "red hot" streak were against the Houston Astros (record: 43-88). At home. And they gave up 5, 5, and 6 runs to that team. They needed extra innings and a wild pitch with a runner on third to complete the sweep. In games 2 and 3 of the series they were 3-16 and 2-15 with RISP, respectively. Do we really believe that performance reflects a team poised to make a run? Which brings me to this...

The hitters are not clutch

There's a difference between hot and clutch. There's a difference between piling on and coming up with timely hits in close games. And doing anything against the Astros doesn't count.

Troy Tulowitzki is batting .305, 26 HR, 89 RBI. That might get him in the top 10 of the MVP vote, and he will probably win another silver slugger award (and a second gold glove, to boot). And yet, how many times has he been the last out of a close game, especially at Coors Field? How many times has he either been the tying run or had the tying run on and not come through? Todd Helton and Carlos Gonzalez are the only two hitters consistently taking good at bats in big, tense moments. It has to be everybody for the kind of winning streak the Rockies need.

Tulo's my boy, but he has not been clutch for a long time. If somebody has a clutch Tulo moment since the team's last playoff run in 2009, I would love to hear it. Anybody?

The rotation stinks

It's Jhoulys Chacin, who seems to be running out of gas, and four pitchers who are #4 guys at best. Two of them are over the hill (Kevin Millwood, Aaron Cook). Two of them are underdeveloped (Esmil Rogers, Alex White). I'm not ready to bet on any of those guys driving a run to the playoffs, especially when you put them up next to the rotations of teams that will make it (see Braves, Atlanta and Phillies, Philadelphia).

To conclude, this is not some feeble attempt at a "reverse curse." You know, like now that I said it won't happen it will. Nope, not that.

The point is what happened in Rocktober 2007 was a team that actually was good and had some really nice pieces figured it out really late in the season - so late that it should have been too late. But what surfaced was that they really were a good club that had underachieved up until late August, at which point they emphatically made up for their previous mediocrity.

The evidence this year shows that the 2011 Colorado Rockies never had the pieces, never truly had the talent to contend. They are not underachieving because the bar should never have been that high in the first place. Even if the teams in front of them continue to falter, the Rockies don't have it.

Not this year.

A Rockies fan's guide to the rest of the 2011 season

Expectations were higher than ever. The Colorado Rockies finally had all the pieces in place to be a contender. Pitching, hitting, defense. The kind of contender that is at the top of the standings from wire to wire. We were ready to complete the transition from pedestrian to serious baseball fans. We were thinking, "Make room, Denver, because this is a baseball town now."

There was a great April and then one disappointment after another. First the hitting faltered. Then the bullpen faltered. Then Jorge De La Rosa got hurt. Then the starting pitching faltered. Then the Ubaldo trade rumors. Then the Ubaldo trade. Now we find ourselves back in a familiar position we thought we had left behind. We are cheering for prospects, thinking about next year and secretly wondering if they can win 21 straight again.

It was not supposed to be this way, and I think it took a long time for us to finally accept that our team was not who we thought they were. So now what? Have no fear, because Warning Track Power has your back. Here is what you should watch for in the last 40 or so games of the 2011 season.

1. Cheer for the Indians

We may never cheer for a more likable player than Ubaldo Jimenez. Nitty gritty baseball fans loved him with an unending appreciation for his "video game" stuff and the fact that he was a homegrown success. Fans who latch onto players because of their personalities loved him because of his soft spoken charm, and reacted like they had just seen a puppy whenever they heard his interviews (ooohhhhhhhh! he's so sweet!). And everybody admired his loyalty to his family and his modest lifestyle. Seeing him traded was a heartbreaker.

Footnote: Having said that, I think we need to trust Rockies management on this one...it might just be the right baseball move in the end.

Who deserves a good story more than Cleveland sports fans? After getting their collective heart stomped on by Bron Bron, Ubaldo is just the kind of presence they deserve. They had Peyton Hillis to lift their spirits during football season, and now hopefully they have Ubaldo and company. He appreciates fans, he is classy, and he is all about team. As of today, they stand two games back of the Detroit Tigers. As Cleveland fans rally behind their team, we should rally behind them back in Colorado and root for the Indians.

2. Pay attention to Esmil Rogers, Aaron Cook, and Alex White

Their performance between now and the rest of the year should provide a good sense of how the rotation shapes up next year. Even with his recent struggles, Jhoulys Chacin has established that he will be at the top of the rotation next year. Once Jorge De La Rosa returns, which will be some time into next season, they sit as a formidable 1-2 punch.

It is especially important to monitor Cook and White. In recent years the Rockies finally figured out what type of pitcher succeeds at Coors Field: a guy who throws hard, heavy sinkers. We know Cook can do it when he's right, and if he can find his form and carry it into next season he projects as a plus bottom of the rotation guy. He is no longer an ace, but if you have an effective Aaron Cook as your 4th starter, you have a deep rotation. Alex White, the second most prized piece of the Ubaldo trade, is a similar pitcher but it would seem he has a greater upside than Cook ever did. He will likely be a September addition to the roster, and fans should follow him with great interest because if all goes as planned he should be in the rotation for a long time to come.

As for Esmil Rogers, if he can find some consistency, he would be an outstanding fifth starter (but not any higher than that, please). As for Jason Hammel....well, once he started talking in the third person, the gig was up. He's gone.

3. Keep falling in love with Jason Giambi

When they signed the Giambino late in the 2009 season, it annoyed me. He had been so unspeakably bad in his second stint with the Oakland A's that it seemed like a waste of time and money to take a flyer on him. Then the following things happened, in this order:

• When he was announced for his first Rockies at bat, fans said: "Woah...that's like, a bad ass walk up song (click video below). I'm fired up about this Giambi guy now!" Shortly after that, fans got completely geeked every time Giambi might pinch hit...as soon as he appeared out of the dugout, the fans behind the plate would stand up and shout, followed by the announcement, followed by the song. The first time I was there for a late Giambi pinch hitting appearance, this sequence absolutely gave me goosebumps (and then I felt really weird, because I realized that the song that had that effect on me included the following line: "Don't turn your back on the Wolfpack, you might end up in a body bag"...but who cares, because Giambi is awesome!) The Rockies have never had a huge presence like that in the late innings (John Vander Wal wasn't very intimidating...although his blonde mullet was exceptional).
• The guy who was supposed to be washed up came through! He was a key to that season's late playoff run.
• The guy who we only knew for doing steroids and being on the evil Yankees turned out to be a total class act and apparently a great locker room guy. The team, the fans, and the city all loved him.
• We all heard he would not be back for the 2010 season, as he would ride the success of 2009 to a DH offer. To our delight, he came back anyway.
• Giambi returned again in 2011, and now he wants to keep coming back. He only said he would agree to a trade this summer if he could come back as a free agent in the offseason. Recently he said he thinks he can effectively play this pinch hitting role for "three more years." We want you for all three, Giambino. Because you are absolutely freakin' awesome.

4. Think happy thoughts when Dexter Fowler bats left handed

Quick...at first glance, how many flaws in Dexter's left handed swing? 5? 6? No need to get into mechanics here, but it's just the eye test. If you cringe when he swings, it's probably not good, right? I think high school coaches would cringe if one of their players had that swing. Yet he insists on switch hitting. So...

...to be fair, his left handed swing has been much better since he was recalled from the Colorado Springs Sky Sox. Fans should hope it stays good, because they are a better team with him roaming the outfield.

Also, we need to send letters or something to Jim Tracy, because Fowler is not a leadoff hitter. He strikes out a lot and does not steal bases (inexplicably). He can't bunt. 7th or 8th is the place for him.

5. Enjoy the playoffs

Aside from the AL Central and the NL West, there will not be many races down the stretch. The playoffs are mostly set, which makes some fans cranky. But if we shift the focus to the playoffs themselves, the match-ups should be outstanding, because the teams who have run away in the standings are all really, really good. There are stacked rotations (Phillies) and stacked lineups (Yankees, Brewers, Red Sox, Rangers). Each team has a legite ace, so there will be good pitching match-ups and endless intrigue as managers try to piece together the late innings. Pick a team or just watch for the sake of seeing good baseball. You can't go wrong.

Follow up: Rockies fans and the MLB Trade Deadline

Here's the problem with these trade "rumors." Jon Heyman, who is one my favorite baseball "insiders" (and I mean that seriously, he's good) posted this article about the Boston Red Sox aggressively pursuing Ubaldo. He opens by saying that "it now seems more likely" that the Rockies will move him just because the Red Sox are now also in the sweepstakes.

Huh? Isn't it just as likely that all that means is there's one more team not willing to meet the Rockies' high demands? Somehow it has become acceptable to make this kind of jump and call it reporting. And like I said, Jon Heyman is much more reliable than others.

Tom Verducci's Flawed Argument

Verducci argues that the Colorado front office should note the failures of their previous inning-eating pitchers and move Ubaldo before he follows that trend. He presents a chart with the ten Rockies pitchers who have thrown 500+ innings and the injuries that have been their decline. His argument says that the exhausting toll it takes on a pitcher to be a work horse in Coors Field all but guarantees a premature regression.

The problem is none of these pitchers are anywhere near Ubaldo's talent level or relevance to a successful franchise. Look at these names, Rockies fans: Shawn Chacon, Armando Reynoso, Kevin Ritz, Jamey Wright, Pedro Astacio. In the case of Chacon and John Thomson, the so-called "toll" it took was the minor leagues and retirement, respectively. Also, less than half of the pitchers on the list pitched with the humidor.

The toll on a pitcher like Kevin Ritz or Armando Reynoso was different because of Coors Field. In a game that was 9-5 in the 3rd inning, the Rockies needed those guys to take the bullet and eat 6 innings to save the bullpen. And they were asked to do that on multiple occasions on a homestand, let alone a season.

That was then, and this is now. The burden on Ubaldo as the team's ace was completely different. He was on a team of underachievers and he was asked to do too much to carry them. If anything, part of this burden was their underachieving offense. It has little or nothing to do with his home ballpark, and yet a national writer like Verducci cannot help but still try to make it about Coors Field.

Troy Renck gets cranky and then gets confusing

Look, I absolutely love Troy Renck's coverage of the Rockies. He's honest, he makes it understandable for fans, and he's consistent. But I think the trade deadline has thrown him off his game a bit.

First of all, he has a nasty habit of snapping at his Twitter followers for asking a question he already answered. Like last night, when he tweeted: "Not looking to get into 1000th hypotheticals here or twitter war...So please read my timeline before shooting off tweets." Those who follow him know he does this often. He might as well put a lot of !!!! at the end of them or type in all caps.

You could just ignore them, right Troy? Remember the distinction - there's a reason we're fans and a reason you're a baseball writer. So if some guy on his lunch break does not read every one of your last 50 tweets (horrors!) and then asks a repeat question (GASP!!!)...just let it go, man. No need to call us out for being bad twitterers (yep, I went there).

And then there's this. Two articles from Renck went up on 7/28/11. One was titled: "Only way to shake up Rockies is trading Ubaldo Jimenez." The second: "Rockies don't have to deal Jimenez."

I get it. There's reasons for each article, they're about separate issues, there's a lot of nuance and fluiditiy in this situation. But he has to understand that looks silly, right?

The Full Links
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/baseball/mlb/07/29/ubaldo.jimenez.heyman/index.html?sct=hp_t2_a4&eref=sihp

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/tom_verducci/07/29/ubaldo.jimenez/index.html?sct=mlb_t11_a3

http://www.denverpost.com/rockies/ci_18573085

http://www.denverpost.com/rockies/ci_18564281

Why the MLB Trade Deadline is hard for Rockies fans

Who even remembers how we followed trade rumors prior to the existence of Twitter? You mean we only checked on trade rumors once or twice a day instead of once or twice (or seven times) an hour? Beat reporters and "insiders" race to break news first and are seemingly not held accountable for reports that have absolutely no substance. All they have to do is begin their message with "Sources:" and then they can pretty much throw anything out there. Throw enough "reports" out there and have one thing come true, and you're killin' it as an insider.

One (fake) example: @hwkane: "SOURCES: Reds like Ubaldo Jimenez, but are unwilling to part with top position player prospects and don't like Ubaldo's tall socks." See?

No doubt this makes the deadline more engaging for fans because there is always a new scoop to follow. For Rockies fans, this also makes it a difficult week because the players we follow are so likable. In previous posts I have mentioned the notion that fans of my generation get used to "cheering for jerseys" because of the lack of player (or team) loyalty. I think one of the most enjoyable things about cheering for the Rockies in the last five years is that we get to know these players. They are accessible and many seem to have fun personalities. We don't just like them individually as players; we like them for how they fit as a Rockie.

We know Ryan Spilborghs is the class clown. We know Ubaldo Jimenez is the soft spoken leader who everybody respects. We know Troy Tulowitzki models himself after Derek Jeter. We know Todd Helton sticks to business but has a wicked and dry sense of humor if you listen closely.

At the beginning of the season, we got excited about the possibilities for this team. And it was not just the talent on paper. Because we feel more connected to the team, it was also the notion that this blend of fun and fan-friendly personalities was the right formula for success. Fans get extra pay-off when they have a sense of the team chemistry that played a role in a successful run. We got that with Rocktober 2007. San Francisco Giants fans got it last year cheering for their band of misfits. That's what we wanted this year.

Just one problem: this blend of awesome personalities stinks at baseball. Oops. Now that it looks like the 2011 Colorado Rockies are destined for mediocrity, baseball insiders are throwing multiple Rockies names out there in speculation. The biggest name is Ubaldo Jimenez.

There might be baseball reasons to trade Ubaldo now. If the Rockies see a flaw that will continue to show in the long term, they can sell high and fill multiple needs (and to be clear, the Rockies certainly have numerous holes to fill). If a team is willing to significantly overpay, you might be able to pull a "Bartolo Colon" trade (who else forgot that the Expos traded Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore, and Brandon Phillips for Bartolo and his vicious four-seam fastball? I did, and...yikes). There were baseball reasons to trade Matt Holliday, and even though he is raking in St. Louis nobody can question the value the Rockies got for him.

That's how analysts and writers view things. It's different for fans. Sure, we are in favor of the Holliday trade now because we understand how important CarGo and Huston Street are to the current team (and to the 2009 playoff team).

When that trade happened, however, it stung. We loved Matt Holliday because we screamed when he got robbed in the 2007 MVP race, because of the winning run in the play-in game, and because of the times that we laughed/cried/threw things because of his defense in left field. He waved to fans, was always nice in post game interviews. We hated losing those things about him.

Now we are faced with the prospect of losing everybody's favorite Rockies pitcher. He's not our favorite because of his stuff and his numbers. It's because we like laughing at the way he runs, we like seeing him interact with the young Latin pitchers, we are still touched by how soft spoken he is in interviews, and we love how his demeanor never changed from when he was on top of baseball to now when he is struggling. For all those reasons, we want Ubaldo to stay our guy, even if his velocity is down or if he has a flawed delivery or if management might get a "grand slam" deal for him. That's why we're fans and management is management. We get to be unreasonable and emotional.

Ubaldo Jimenez might not get traded. In pre-Twitter seasons, we would celebrate the day after the deadline. Ubaldo is staying! Yes! It was that simple. Now we know his asking price, who wanted him, why they might trade him, why other teams backed off and that he might be available again in the off season. I'm not sure if it will feel right to celebrate a non-trade in this climate.

On the one hand, all of this information makes it easier to be a cool, objective, and cutthroat fan. On the other, it makes it difficult to cling to the irrational and emotional opinions that make being a fan so fun in the first place.

So let me be so bold and speak for Rockies fans here. We choose to remain emotional about Ubaldo. We feel attached to him, we want him to be our guy. Please, please, please don't trade him. Sign him to that extension you talked about last off season. Give us Tulo, CarGo, and Ubaldo as the long term faces of the franchise. We like them a lot.

If nothing else, don't trade him to the fucking Yankees.

At the MLB All Star break

Colorado Rockies fans are not viewed as an overly informed group as compared to the notoriously "good" fans (Red Sox, Yankees, Cardinals). But in some cases we deserve more credit than we are given. Here are three facts from the first half of the 2011 baseball season that Rockies fans knew before everybody else.

1. Adrian Gonzalez might be the best hitter in baseball.

I have said this for the last three seasons. That's why I picked him as MVP in my expert preseason predictions. I said it when Gonzalez was on the Padres, and people thought I was crazy because he did not play for the Red Sox, Phillies, or Yankees. The fact is he consistently put up 30 home runs and 100 RBI with a high average while batting in a lineup with absolutely no protection and in arguably the best pitcher's park in baseball. Now that he is in Boston people are astounded at how good he is, even referring to him as a "great story" of the first half of this season. Anybody who paid attention to him in San Diego knows he's been this good for a long time. Rockies fans have known this because he used to torture us night after night. He might be the best hitter in baseball, and that includes that Pujols guy.

2. Clint Hurdle makes you believe. 

Fans understood this about Hurdle because of the Rocktober run of 2007, but after his long slide out of Colorado in the 2008 and 2009 seasons some wondered if that was a one year wonder. It wasn't. If you take a team whose highest aspirations pre-Hurdle were a .500 season, Hurdle will make that team believe they are a playoff team. He crumbled under high expectations in his last seasons in Colorado, but right now the Pirates believe.

3. The Rockies are in position to make the playoffs.

They are at least 5 games out of both the wildcard and the division, including an 8.5 game hole in the NL west. Yep, that sounds about right.

P.S. - This third bit of knowledge assumes that the Rockies figure out who the heck is going to stabilize their starting rotation. That's a daunting task at this point. What they really need is the current guys not named Juan Nicasio to step up, and find somebody for his spot because he is not ready for the big show yet. Easy right?

Piggybacking: Jim Riggleman will never manage again

David Schoenfield (ESPN) and Joe Lemire (Sports Illustrated) both wrote columns yesterday in which they argued Jim Riggleman will never manage in MLB again. For those who missed it, Riggleman, now the former manager of the Washington Nationals, told management yesterday that they needed to pick up his contract option for next season or he would resign. They didn't, and he did. Right in the middle of the season, right afrer an exciting walk-off win, right as the Nationals finally gained some momentum in the standings, having won 11 of 12 games.

Schoenfield and Lemire both note that Riggleman's poor timing combined with his new reputation as a quitter and his underwhelming career managerial record (well below .500) mean no team will ever give him a sniff of a coaching opening. That got me to thinking about my sophomore year in college (stay with me).

I was furious with the residential life office for denying my request to live off campus for my junior year. I pounded out what I thought was a wicked and persuasive email, where I called the college, among other things, "money-grubbers." I threatened that if they did not reconsider my situation, I would have to transfer. My dear friend Mark looked over my shoulder and calmly said, essentially, "Yea...you can't actually send that." In that moment, I learned the valuable problem solving technique taught by so many people. If you're mad, write that really angry letter or email, put it aside, and then look at it again once you've cooled off. You know how this ends. You realize how you overreacted, and you're glad to have handled things like a grown up instead of making your tantrum part of the discussion. (Thanks Mark)

If I had sent that email, I would have been miserable with the decision within a week. And I have a feeling that when Jim Riggleman has some time to process his "principled stand" and the fact that he really will never manage again, he will slap himself on the forehead and wish he had just written a really mean note and left it in his office drawer.

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/12766/jim-riggleman-will-never-manage-again

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/joe_lemire/06/23/riggleman.leaving.nationals/index.html?sct=mlb_t11_a1

Thursday tidbits 6/23/11

A Quote

Colorado Rockies pitcher Jason Hammel explains his costly balk from last night's 4-3 loss to the Cleveland Indians:

"I picked up the runner at third and looked home and started my motion and...I can honestly tell you I forgot what I was throwing...It was between a fastball and a slider and I just forgot. I've never had that happen before. Just a brain (slip), and it stinks that that's the one that cost us."

Yes Jason, it stinks indeed. I know it is easier said than done to ask a pitcher to improvise once they start their wind-up, but there had to be a better option. An easy one hop pitch? A pitch-out? Thankfully the Rockies had already won the series heading into a tough situation in New York against the Yankees this weekend.

A Note from the MLB Standings

Entering play today, four teams have 37-37 records: The Colorado Rockies, the Washington Nationals, the Seattle Mariners, and the Pittsburgh Pirates. Take that as you will.

The Rockies currently have a 19-19 home record and an 18-18 road record. The good news? Their recipe for success has to be a .500 record on the road and then crush teams at home. So far they're handling the road half of that equation. Now they need to pile up the home wins.

A Video

With the second overall selection, the Minnesota Timberwolves are the action team in tonight's 2011 NBA draft. Per Bill Simmons and his running joke about David Kahn, here is a fun video about the adventure that is the Timberwolves' front office:

Comparing Darko Milicic to Vlade Divac? There are layers of comedy in this interview, besides the funny work of the creator of this video. And how great is Chris Webber throughout the clip? You can hear him rolling his eyes when he says "good luck."

Here is why NBA fans should all tune in to see the action tonight. You never know when David Kahn's ...ahem... creativity might impact your team. An example? The year that he inexplicably drafted three point guards the Nuggets acquired Ty Lawson. AND in the time leading up to this year's draft, the elusive Ricky Rubio finally agreed to play for the Timberwolves and there are reports that head coach Kurt Rambis will be fired immediately after the draft. Action!

P.S. - If Darko starts chain smoking and flopping every time an opponent breathes on him, then we will know that Kahn was onto something with that Divac comparison.

A Photo

Here is Rory McIlroy as part of Golf.com's gallery of runaway winners at major tournaments, which could also be called "Tiger Woods and three other guys."

A Tweet

@JayBilas: Kyrie Irving will be the first pick. All the talk otherwise is smoke. Derrick Williams will score big in the NBA, but he needs to guard.

About Thursday Tidbits

This format was inspired by Sports Illustrated's 'Morning Jolt.' Check it out here.

Something You Better Read...

...If you haven't already, this blog written by my good friend Ryan Presley for Father's Day.

I hope...

...that the Nuggets draft Kenneth Faried. Even if they have to trade up a couple slots to do it.

Links

Grantland's NBA Draft preview http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/6685360/grantland-nba-draft-lottery-preview

Joe Sheehan wonders if Prince Fielder will be the top slugger available this offseason http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/joe_sheehan/06/23/pujols.fielder/index.html?eref=sihp&sct=hp_wr_a1

Rick Reilly on the new era of golf http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/rickreilly/news/story?id=6690774