Here's the problem with these trade "rumors." Jon Heyman, who is one my favorite baseball "insiders" (and I mean that seriously, he's good) posted this article about the Boston Red Sox aggressively pursuing Ubaldo. He opens by saying that "it now seems more likely" that the Rockies will move him just because the Red Sox are now also in the sweepstakes.
Huh? Isn't it just as likely that all that means is there's one more team not willing to meet the Rockies' high demands? Somehow it has become acceptable to make this kind of jump and call it reporting. And like I said, Jon Heyman is much more reliable than others.
Tom Verducci's Flawed Argument
Verducci argues that the Colorado front office should note the failures of their previous inning-eating pitchers and move Ubaldo before he follows that trend. He presents a chart with the ten Rockies pitchers who have thrown 500+ innings and the injuries that have been their decline. His argument says that the exhausting toll it takes on a pitcher to be a work horse in Coors Field all but guarantees a premature regression.
The problem is none of these pitchers are anywhere near Ubaldo's talent level or relevance to a successful franchise. Look at these names, Rockies fans: Shawn Chacon, Armando Reynoso, Kevin Ritz, Jamey Wright, Pedro Astacio. In the case of Chacon and John Thomson, the so-called "toll" it took was the minor leagues and retirement, respectively. Also, less than half of the pitchers on the list pitched with the humidor.
The toll on a pitcher like Kevin Ritz or Armando Reynoso was different because of Coors Field. In a game that was 9-5 in the 3rd inning, the Rockies needed those guys to take the bullet and eat 6 innings to save the bullpen. And they were asked to do that on multiple occasions on a homestand, let alone a season.
That was then, and this is now. The burden on Ubaldo as the team's ace was completely different. He was on a team of underachievers and he was asked to do too much to carry them. If anything, part of this burden was their underachieving offense. It has little or nothing to do with his home ballpark, and yet a national writer like Verducci cannot help but still try to make it about Coors Field.
Troy Renck gets cranky and then gets confusing
Look, I absolutely love Troy Renck's coverage of the Rockies. He's honest, he makes it understandable for fans, and he's consistent. But I think the trade deadline has thrown him off his game a bit.
First of all, he has a nasty habit of snapping at his Twitter followers for asking a question he already answered. Like last night, when he tweeted: "Not looking to get into 1000th hypotheticals here or twitter war...So please read my timeline before shooting off tweets." Those who follow him know he does this often. He might as well put a lot of !!!! at the end of them or type in all caps.
You could just ignore them, right Troy? Remember the distinction - there's a reason we're fans and a reason you're a baseball writer. So if some guy on his lunch break does not read every one of your last 50 tweets (horrors!) and then asks a repeat question (GASP!!!)...just let it go, man. No need to call us out for being bad twitterers (yep, I went there).
And then there's this. Two articles from Renck went up on 7/28/11. One was titled: "Only way to shake up Rockies is trading Ubaldo Jimenez." The second: "Rockies don't have to deal Jimenez."
I get it. There's reasons for each article, they're about separate issues, there's a lot of nuance and fluiditiy in this situation. But he has to understand that looks silly, right?
The Full Links
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/baseball/mlb/07/29/ubaldo.jimenez.heyman/index.html?sct=hp_t2_a4&eref=sihp
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/tom_verducci/07/29/ubaldo.jimenez/index.html?sct=mlb_t11_a3
http://www.denverpost.com/rockies/ci_18573085
http://www.denverpost.com/rockies/ci_18564281
Friday, July 29, 2011
Why the MLB Trade Deadline is hard for Rockies fans
Who even remembers how we followed trade rumors prior to the existence of Twitter? You mean we only checked on trade rumors once or twice a day instead of once or twice (or seven times) an hour? Beat reporters and "insiders" race to break news first and are seemingly not held accountable for reports that have absolutely no substance. All they have to do is begin their message with "Sources:" and then they can pretty much throw anything out there. Throw enough "reports" out there and have one thing come true, and you're killin' it as an insider.
One (fake) example: @hwkane: "SOURCES: Reds like Ubaldo Jimenez, but are unwilling to part with top position player prospects and don't like Ubaldo's tall socks." See?
No doubt this makes the deadline more engaging for fans because there is always a new scoop to follow. For Rockies fans, this also makes it a difficult week because the players we follow are so likable. In previous posts I have mentioned the notion that fans of my generation get used to "cheering for jerseys" because of the lack of player (or team) loyalty. I think one of the most enjoyable things about cheering for the Rockies in the last five years is that we get to know these players. They are accessible and many seem to have fun personalities. We don't just like them individually as players; we like them for how they fit as a Rockie.
We know Ryan Spilborghs is the class clown. We know Ubaldo Jimenez is the soft spoken leader who everybody respects. We know Troy Tulowitzki models himself after Derek Jeter. We know Todd Helton sticks to business but has a wicked and dry sense of humor if you listen closely.
At the beginning of the season, we got excited about the possibilities for this team. And it was not just the talent on paper. Because we feel more connected to the team, it was also the notion that this blend of fun and fan-friendly personalities was the right formula for success. Fans get extra pay-off when they have a sense of the team chemistry that played a role in a successful run. We got that with Rocktober 2007. San Francisco Giants fans got it last year cheering for their band of misfits. That's what we wanted this year.
Just one problem: this blend of awesome personalities stinks at baseball. Oops. Now that it looks like the 2011 Colorado Rockies are destined for mediocrity, baseball insiders are throwing multiple Rockies names out there in speculation. The biggest name is Ubaldo Jimenez.
There might be baseball reasons to trade Ubaldo now. If the Rockies see a flaw that will continue to show in the long term, they can sell high and fill multiple needs (and to be clear, the Rockies certainly have numerous holes to fill). If a team is willing to significantly overpay, you might be able to pull a "Bartolo Colon" trade (who else forgot that the Expos traded Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore, and Brandon Phillips for Bartolo and his vicious four-seam fastball? I did, and...yikes). There were baseball reasons to trade Matt Holliday, and even though he is raking in St. Louis nobody can question the value the Rockies got for him.
That's how analysts and writers view things. It's different for fans. Sure, we are in favor of the Holliday trade now because we understand how important CarGo and Huston Street are to the current team (and to the 2009 playoff team).
When that trade happened, however, it stung. We loved Matt Holliday because we screamed when he got robbed in the 2007 MVP race, because of the winning run in the play-in game, and because of the times that we laughed/cried/threw things because of his defense in left field. He waved to fans, was always nice in post game interviews. We hated losing those things about him.
Now we are faced with the prospect of losing everybody's favorite Rockies pitcher. He's not our favorite because of his stuff and his numbers. It's because we like laughing at the way he runs, we like seeing him interact with the young Latin pitchers, we are still touched by how soft spoken he is in interviews, and we love how his demeanor never changed from when he was on top of baseball to now when he is struggling. For all those reasons, we want Ubaldo to stay our guy, even if his velocity is down or if he has a flawed delivery or if management might get a "grand slam" deal for him. That's why we're fans and management is management. We get to be unreasonable and emotional.
Ubaldo Jimenez might not get traded. In pre-Twitter seasons, we would celebrate the day after the deadline. Ubaldo is staying! Yes! It was that simple. Now we know his asking price, who wanted him, why they might trade him, why other teams backed off and that he might be available again in the off season. I'm not sure if it will feel right to celebrate a non-trade in this climate.
On the one hand, all of this information makes it easier to be a cool, objective, and cutthroat fan. On the other, it makes it difficult to cling to the irrational and emotional opinions that make being a fan so fun in the first place.
So let me be so bold and speak for Rockies fans here. We choose to remain emotional about Ubaldo. We feel attached to him, we want him to be our guy. Please, please, please don't trade him. Sign him to that extension you talked about last off season. Give us Tulo, CarGo, and Ubaldo as the long term faces of the franchise. We like them a lot.
If nothing else, don't trade him to the fucking Yankees.
One (fake) example: @hwkane: "SOURCES: Reds like Ubaldo Jimenez, but are unwilling to part with top position player prospects and don't like Ubaldo's tall socks." See?
No doubt this makes the deadline more engaging for fans because there is always a new scoop to follow. For Rockies fans, this also makes it a difficult week because the players we follow are so likable. In previous posts I have mentioned the notion that fans of my generation get used to "cheering for jerseys" because of the lack of player (or team) loyalty. I think one of the most enjoyable things about cheering for the Rockies in the last five years is that we get to know these players. They are accessible and many seem to have fun personalities. We don't just like them individually as players; we like them for how they fit as a Rockie.
We know Ryan Spilborghs is the class clown. We know Ubaldo Jimenez is the soft spoken leader who everybody respects. We know Troy Tulowitzki models himself after Derek Jeter. We know Todd Helton sticks to business but has a wicked and dry sense of humor if you listen closely.
At the beginning of the season, we got excited about the possibilities for this team. And it was not just the talent on paper. Because we feel more connected to the team, it was also the notion that this blend of fun and fan-friendly personalities was the right formula for success. Fans get extra pay-off when they have a sense of the team chemistry that played a role in a successful run. We got that with Rocktober 2007. San Francisco Giants fans got it last year cheering for their band of misfits. That's what we wanted this year.
Just one problem: this blend of awesome personalities stinks at baseball. Oops. Now that it looks like the 2011 Colorado Rockies are destined for mediocrity, baseball insiders are throwing multiple Rockies names out there in speculation. The biggest name is Ubaldo Jimenez.
There might be baseball reasons to trade Ubaldo now. If the Rockies see a flaw that will continue to show in the long term, they can sell high and fill multiple needs (and to be clear, the Rockies certainly have numerous holes to fill). If a team is willing to significantly overpay, you might be able to pull a "Bartolo Colon" trade (who else forgot that the Expos traded Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore, and Brandon Phillips for Bartolo and his vicious four-seam fastball? I did, and...yikes). There were baseball reasons to trade Matt Holliday, and even though he is raking in St. Louis nobody can question the value the Rockies got for him.
That's how analysts and writers view things. It's different for fans. Sure, we are in favor of the Holliday trade now because we understand how important CarGo and Huston Street are to the current team (and to the 2009 playoff team).
When that trade happened, however, it stung. We loved Matt Holliday because we screamed when he got robbed in the 2007 MVP race, because of the winning run in the play-in game, and because of the times that we laughed/cried/threw things because of his defense in left field. He waved to fans, was always nice in post game interviews. We hated losing those things about him.
Now we are faced with the prospect of losing everybody's favorite Rockies pitcher. He's not our favorite because of his stuff and his numbers. It's because we like laughing at the way he runs, we like seeing him interact with the young Latin pitchers, we are still touched by how soft spoken he is in interviews, and we love how his demeanor never changed from when he was on top of baseball to now when he is struggling. For all those reasons, we want Ubaldo to stay our guy, even if his velocity is down or if he has a flawed delivery or if management might get a "grand slam" deal for him. That's why we're fans and management is management. We get to be unreasonable and emotional.
Ubaldo Jimenez might not get traded. In pre-Twitter seasons, we would celebrate the day after the deadline. Ubaldo is staying! Yes! It was that simple. Now we know his asking price, who wanted him, why they might trade him, why other teams backed off and that he might be available again in the off season. I'm not sure if it will feel right to celebrate a non-trade in this climate.
On the one hand, all of this information makes it easier to be a cool, objective, and cutthroat fan. On the other, it makes it difficult to cling to the irrational and emotional opinions that make being a fan so fun in the first place.
So let me be so bold and speak for Rockies fans here. We choose to remain emotional about Ubaldo. We feel attached to him, we want him to be our guy. Please, please, please don't trade him. Sign him to that extension you talked about last off season. Give us Tulo, CarGo, and Ubaldo as the long term faces of the franchise. We like them a lot.
If nothing else, don't trade him to the fucking Yankees.
Tuesday, July 12, 2011
At the MLB All Star break
Colorado Rockies fans are not viewed as an overly informed group as compared to the notoriously "good" fans (Red Sox, Yankees, Cardinals). But in some cases we deserve more credit than we are given. Here are three facts from the first half of the 2011 baseball season that Rockies fans knew before everybody else.
1. Adrian Gonzalez might be the best hitter in baseball.
I have said this for the last three seasons. That's why I picked him as MVP in my expert preseason predictions. I said it when Gonzalez was on the Padres, and people thought I was crazy because he did not play for the Red Sox, Phillies, or Yankees. The fact is he consistently put up 30 home runs and 100 RBI with a high average while batting in a lineup with absolutely no protection and in arguably the best pitcher's park in baseball. Now that he is in Boston people are astounded at how good he is, even referring to him as a "great story" of the first half of this season. Anybody who paid attention to him in San Diego knows he's been this good for a long time. Rockies fans have known this because he used to torture us night after night. He might be the best hitter in baseball, and that includes that Pujols guy.
2. Clint Hurdle makes you believe.
Fans understood this about Hurdle because of the Rocktober run of 2007, but after his long slide out of Colorado in the 2008 and 2009 seasons some wondered if that was a one year wonder. It wasn't. If you take a team whose highest aspirations pre-Hurdle were a .500 season, Hurdle will make that team believe they are a playoff team. He crumbled under high expectations in his last seasons in Colorado, but right now the Pirates believe.
3. The Rockies are in position to make the playoffs.
They are at least 5 games out of both the wildcard and the division, including an 8.5 game hole in the NL west. Yep, that sounds about right.
P.S. - This third bit of knowledge assumes that the Rockies figure out who the heck is going to stabilize their starting rotation. That's a daunting task at this point. What they really need is the current guys not named Juan Nicasio to step up, and find somebody for his spot because he is not ready for the big show yet. Easy right?
1. Adrian Gonzalez might be the best hitter in baseball.
I have said this for the last three seasons. That's why I picked him as MVP in my expert preseason predictions. I said it when Gonzalez was on the Padres, and people thought I was crazy because he did not play for the Red Sox, Phillies, or Yankees. The fact is he consistently put up 30 home runs and 100 RBI with a high average while batting in a lineup with absolutely no protection and in arguably the best pitcher's park in baseball. Now that he is in Boston people are astounded at how good he is, even referring to him as a "great story" of the first half of this season. Anybody who paid attention to him in San Diego knows he's been this good for a long time. Rockies fans have known this because he used to torture us night after night. He might be the best hitter in baseball, and that includes that Pujols guy.
2. Clint Hurdle makes you believe.
Fans understood this about Hurdle because of the Rocktober run of 2007, but after his long slide out of Colorado in the 2008 and 2009 seasons some wondered if that was a one year wonder. It wasn't. If you take a team whose highest aspirations pre-Hurdle were a .500 season, Hurdle will make that team believe they are a playoff team. He crumbled under high expectations in his last seasons in Colorado, but right now the Pirates believe.
3. The Rockies are in position to make the playoffs.
They are at least 5 games out of both the wildcard and the division, including an 8.5 game hole in the NL west. Yep, that sounds about right.
P.S. - This third bit of knowledge assumes that the Rockies figure out who the heck is going to stabilize their starting rotation. That's a daunting task at this point. What they really need is the current guys not named Juan Nicasio to step up, and find somebody for his spot because he is not ready for the big show yet. Easy right?
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