Why the Rockies will not make the playoffs

Buzzkill. I know. Everybody's having fun, CarGo is hot, Tulo is hot, the national reporters are noting that the Rockies are "at it again." Five straight wins! Rocktober part 3! It's a great party, and I'm going to be the guy who pees in the punch. But it must be done. I have to be that guy. Who is that guy? Here are three other analogies:

1. It's like when you're in a discussion class, like something in political science or literature, and somebody starts a really awesome tangent. You know, when somebody says, "Women shouldn't be allowed to vote," and you cannot wait to just sit back, drink your ice cold Mountain Dew (or whatever expired soda you grabbed from the vending machine before class) and watch the show when people start frothing at the mouth and screaming at one another. I'm the guy who says, "Let's bring this back to the reading for today." Lame!

2. Here's one for the musicians. It's like when you're in a sectional or small rehearsal, and you decide to start playing old pep band tunes and dancing around, or you just realized it's really funny to play "Hava Nagila" on tuba. I'm the guy who says, "Come on guys, we really need to work on tuning." Double buzzkill!

3. It's like if you're really enjoying the current season of Entourage (Sunday nights on HBO!), hanging on every twist in the plot, pulling for Ari and DANA GORDON, pulling for Johnny Drama's success on his new show, and just generally excited for each new episode. Then somebody like Ryan Douglas Presley (eat your heart out) reminds you: "Hey, this season stinks. Entourage peaked after season 3, and it's been a steady and depressing decline ever since. The drug addiction storyline will be remembered as the show's fatal flaw. Seriously, how can you tell me you're enjoying this dogshit season?" Wet blanket!

So why would I be that guy, especially when it comes to the team that I love? Everybody else started gearing up for this year's version of Rocktober this week, so why didn't I? Maybe I don't want to get my own hopes up...maybe I'm preparing myself so I won't be so bummed out later on. Either way, I'm hashing out why it won't happen. But let me be clear - I hope that I am totally and unequivocally wrong. I hope the Rockies rip off 15 straight and steal headlines. I just don't think this team is built for it, and here's why:

It was the Astros

Three games of the five in the current "red hot" streak were against the Houston Astros (record: 43-88). At home. And they gave up 5, 5, and 6 runs to that team. They needed extra innings and a wild pitch with a runner on third to complete the sweep. In games 2 and 3 of the series they were 3-16 and 2-15 with RISP, respectively. Do we really believe that performance reflects a team poised to make a run? Which brings me to this...

The hitters are not clutch

There's a difference between hot and clutch. There's a difference between piling on and coming up with timely hits in close games. And doing anything against the Astros doesn't count.

Troy Tulowitzki is batting .305, 26 HR, 89 RBI. That might get him in the top 10 of the MVP vote, and he will probably win another silver slugger award (and a second gold glove, to boot). And yet, how many times has he been the last out of a close game, especially at Coors Field? How many times has he either been the tying run or had the tying run on and not come through? Todd Helton and Carlos Gonzalez are the only two hitters consistently taking good at bats in big, tense moments. It has to be everybody for the kind of winning streak the Rockies need.

Tulo's my boy, but he has not been clutch for a long time. If somebody has a clutch Tulo moment since the team's last playoff run in 2009, I would love to hear it. Anybody?

The rotation stinks

It's Jhoulys Chacin, who seems to be running out of gas, and four pitchers who are #4 guys at best. Two of them are over the hill (Kevin Millwood, Aaron Cook). Two of them are underdeveloped (Esmil Rogers, Alex White). I'm not ready to bet on any of those guys driving a run to the playoffs, especially when you put them up next to the rotations of teams that will make it (see Braves, Atlanta and Phillies, Philadelphia).

To conclude, this is not some feeble attempt at a "reverse curse." You know, like now that I said it won't happen it will. Nope, not that.

The point is what happened in Rocktober 2007 was a team that actually was good and had some really nice pieces figured it out really late in the season - so late that it should have been too late. But what surfaced was that they really were a good club that had underachieved up until late August, at which point they emphatically made up for their previous mediocrity.

The evidence this year shows that the 2011 Colorado Rockies never had the pieces, never truly had the talent to contend. They are not underachieving because the bar should never have been that high in the first place. Even if the teams in front of them continue to falter, the Rockies don't have it.

Not this year.

A Rockies fan's guide to the rest of the 2011 season

Expectations were higher than ever. The Colorado Rockies finally had all the pieces in place to be a contender. Pitching, hitting, defense. The kind of contender that is at the top of the standings from wire to wire. We were ready to complete the transition from pedestrian to serious baseball fans. We were thinking, "Make room, Denver, because this is a baseball town now."

There was a great April and then one disappointment after another. First the hitting faltered. Then the bullpen faltered. Then Jorge De La Rosa got hurt. Then the starting pitching faltered. Then the Ubaldo trade rumors. Then the Ubaldo trade. Now we find ourselves back in a familiar position we thought we had left behind. We are cheering for prospects, thinking about next year and secretly wondering if they can win 21 straight again.

It was not supposed to be this way, and I think it took a long time for us to finally accept that our team was not who we thought they were. So now what? Have no fear, because Warning Track Power has your back. Here is what you should watch for in the last 40 or so games of the 2011 season.

1. Cheer for the Indians

We may never cheer for a more likable player than Ubaldo Jimenez. Nitty gritty baseball fans loved him with an unending appreciation for his "video game" stuff and the fact that he was a homegrown success. Fans who latch onto players because of their personalities loved him because of his soft spoken charm, and reacted like they had just seen a puppy whenever they heard his interviews (ooohhhhhhhh! he's so sweet!). And everybody admired his loyalty to his family and his modest lifestyle. Seeing him traded was a heartbreaker.

Footnote: Having said that, I think we need to trust Rockies management on this one...it might just be the right baseball move in the end.

Who deserves a good story more than Cleveland sports fans? After getting their collective heart stomped on by Bron Bron, Ubaldo is just the kind of presence they deserve. They had Peyton Hillis to lift their spirits during football season, and now hopefully they have Ubaldo and company. He appreciates fans, he is classy, and he is all about team. As of today, they stand two games back of the Detroit Tigers. As Cleveland fans rally behind their team, we should rally behind them back in Colorado and root for the Indians.

2. Pay attention to Esmil Rogers, Aaron Cook, and Alex White

Their performance between now and the rest of the year should provide a good sense of how the rotation shapes up next year. Even with his recent struggles, Jhoulys Chacin has established that he will be at the top of the rotation next year. Once Jorge De La Rosa returns, which will be some time into next season, they sit as a formidable 1-2 punch.

It is especially important to monitor Cook and White. In recent years the Rockies finally figured out what type of pitcher succeeds at Coors Field: a guy who throws hard, heavy sinkers. We know Cook can do it when he's right, and if he can find his form and carry it into next season he projects as a plus bottom of the rotation guy. He is no longer an ace, but if you have an effective Aaron Cook as your 4th starter, you have a deep rotation. Alex White, the second most prized piece of the Ubaldo trade, is a similar pitcher but it would seem he has a greater upside than Cook ever did. He will likely be a September addition to the roster, and fans should follow him with great interest because if all goes as planned he should be in the rotation for a long time to come.

As for Esmil Rogers, if he can find some consistency, he would be an outstanding fifth starter (but not any higher than that, please). As for Jason Hammel....well, once he started talking in the third person, the gig was up. He's gone.

3. Keep falling in love with Jason Giambi

When they signed the Giambino late in the 2009 season, it annoyed me. He had been so unspeakably bad in his second stint with the Oakland A's that it seemed like a waste of time and money to take a flyer on him. Then the following things happened, in this order:

• When he was announced for his first Rockies at bat, fans said: "Woah...that's like, a bad ass walk up song (click video below). I'm fired up about this Giambi guy now!" Shortly after that, fans got completely geeked every time Giambi might pinch hit...as soon as he appeared out of the dugout, the fans behind the plate would stand up and shout, followed by the announcement, followed by the song. The first time I was there for a late Giambi pinch hitting appearance, this sequence absolutely gave me goosebumps (and then I felt really weird, because I realized that the song that had that effect on me included the following line: "Don't turn your back on the Wolfpack, you might end up in a body bag"...but who cares, because Giambi is awesome!) The Rockies have never had a huge presence like that in the late innings (John Vander Wal wasn't very intimidating...although his blonde mullet was exceptional).
• The guy who was supposed to be washed up came through! He was a key to that season's late playoff run.
• The guy who we only knew for doing steroids and being on the evil Yankees turned out to be a total class act and apparently a great locker room guy. The team, the fans, and the city all loved him.
• We all heard he would not be back for the 2010 season, as he would ride the success of 2009 to a DH offer. To our delight, he came back anyway.
• Giambi returned again in 2011, and now he wants to keep coming back. He only said he would agree to a trade this summer if he could come back as a free agent in the offseason. Recently he said he thinks he can effectively play this pinch hitting role for "three more years." We want you for all three, Giambino. Because you are absolutely freakin' awesome.

4. Think happy thoughts when Dexter Fowler bats left handed

Quick...at first glance, how many flaws in Dexter's left handed swing? 5? 6? No need to get into mechanics here, but it's just the eye test. If you cringe when he swings, it's probably not good, right? I think high school coaches would cringe if one of their players had that swing. Yet he insists on switch hitting. So...

...to be fair, his left handed swing has been much better since he was recalled from the Colorado Springs Sky Sox. Fans should hope it stays good, because they are a better team with him roaming the outfield.

Also, we need to send letters or something to Jim Tracy, because Fowler is not a leadoff hitter. He strikes out a lot and does not steal bases (inexplicably). He can't bunt. 7th or 8th is the place for him.

5. Enjoy the playoffs

Aside from the AL Central and the NL West, there will not be many races down the stretch. The playoffs are mostly set, which makes some fans cranky. But if we shift the focus to the playoffs themselves, the match-ups should be outstanding, because the teams who have run away in the standings are all really, really good. There are stacked rotations (Phillies) and stacked lineups (Yankees, Brewers, Red Sox, Rangers). Each team has a legite ace, so there will be good pitching match-ups and endless intrigue as managers try to piece together the late innings. Pick a team or just watch for the sake of seeing good baseball. You can't go wrong.