NFL Preview Extravaganza!

After taking three weeks to get settled into being a graduate student, Warning Track Power is back and better than ever (well...I'm back, at least). I had settled into a routine of doing a Rockies week in review on Sunday nights...but they've won 10 straight with me not doing that, so I'm not going there.

Yes, I realize that most of the slate of games for week 1 has already been completed, but here are my picks for the upcoming NFL season (not tainted by the results today...much)

AFC


North: Pittsburgh Steelers. Big Ben is a gross human being, but his off-season conduct threw everybody off the scent. For some reason, we all stopped talking about their terrifying defense, especially with a healthy Troy Polamalu. They'll do fine to tread water until Ben returns, and even though he's a major scum bag, the guy can play. Give me the Steelers over the over-hyped Baltimore Ravens (not enough defense) and the 'scene-of-inevitable-drama' Cincinnati Bengals in a stacked division. And then there's the Browns...

South: Indianapolis Colts. Lots of excited Houston Texans people today. And rightfully so - they looked tough. More important than Arian Foster's breakout was the play of that defensive front - if Mario Williams and co. rush the passer like that all year, they will stay relevant. Having said all of that, it's still Peyton Manning. The Tennessee Titans will be a tough match-up for anybody, but will ultimately come up short. Jacksonville will be a punching bag (not sure what that says about the Broncos week 1 loss to them...)

East: New England Patriots. Once again, I think a few too many people forgot about them in the midst of the New York Jets off-season adventures. They have a healthy and rich Tom Brady, and while there are some questions about personnel on the defensive side of the ball, Bill Belichick's scheming should prove to be enough. And how excited do we think Belichick is to be the underdog? The Miami Dolphins, a popular sleeper pick, are at least a year away from contending but will be pesky, especially down the stretch. Buffalo Bills: see entry for Jaguars.

West: San Diego Chargers. No homer pick here. The Chargers will win as this division will continue to achieve new heights in mediocrity. I've got everybody in the division between 7 and 9 wins, with the Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders being moderately improved and the Broncos being about the same. The Chargers won't have the same punch offensively, and will be average on defense, but Philip Rivers should be enough for them to stumble to another division title.

Wild card teams: Houston Texans and New York Jets. Many assume two playoff teams will come out of the north, but I think the Bengals are a collection of talented but mismatched parts and the Ravens won't have enough defense (yes, I said defense), especially with a big question mark about when and if Ed Reed will return to health. The Jets hype is annoying, but that defense with Rex Ryan calling the shots will get them a second wild card berth in a row, and the Texans will finally get over the hump into the playoffs.

NFC


North: Green Bay Packers. I have lots of Minnesota friends who will not be happy with that pick (if they read this), but Aaron Rodgers is a flat out stud, and they have enough playmakers on defense with the likes of Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson to win this division. Also, need I remind any bitter Vikings fans who their coach is? Brad Childress is an absolute dope (with a contract extension...oops), and he will lose control of this team by mid-season to a bitter and hobbling Brett Favre. As for the Chicago Bears, the combination of Jay Cutler and Mike Martz will be wildly entertaining and may result in a single season interception record, but they are not built for the playoffs. The Detroit Lions will score points and not do much else. In short, this division will be a 3-ring circus, but the Packers are built to make a deep run.

South: New Orleans Saints. They have Drew Brees, a great head coach in Sean Payton, and a defense that has gone from "opportunistic" last year to legitimately stingy this year. The Atlanta Falcons will hang around, especially with their pack of young defenders improving and a cool customer in Matt Ryan. The Carolina Panthers have such a great trio of playmakers in DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and Steve Smith. But Matt Moore is predictably average (and now has a concussion), and the cries for Jimmy Clausen will magnify the lack of success for this team. And Tampa Bay....oh Tampa Bay. Nice win today?

East: Dallas Cowboys. The division we will surely hear the most about. In the midst of all the Washington Redskin attention, the New York Giants flew mostly under the radar. The Cowboys will ultimately win because of their depth on both sides of the ball, but will not win in the playoffs with poor Wade Phillips running things. The Giants will be right there, with a rebounding defense and the emergence of Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks to help Eli Manning. The Redskins will be entertaining, but won't contend until Mike Shanahan can clear out the players from Dan Snyder's many attempts to buy an NFL super team. As for the Philadelphia Eagles, they showed a lot of grit in their loss to the Packers, but they will end up in the bottom half of the division as Andy Reid deals with too much youth on offense and a headache as the psychotic fans start shouting for Michael Vick.

West: San Francisco 49ers. They looked like absolute garbage against the Seattle Seahawks today, but I believe it was an aberration. Give me Coach Singletary and a defense that will improve on a poor week 1 showing over anything else in this division. I'm not going to waste much time on the other three teams in the division. The honeymoon will be over soon with Pete Carroll in Seattle. I don't have a football reason why - it just can't work out, can it? The Arizona Cardinals are depleted and Derek Anderson, who got released by the BROWNS, is playing quarterback. And I like Sam Bradford, so I am just cheering for him to survive in St. Louis.

Wild card teams: Minnesota Vikings and New York Giants. For all the mean things I had to say about Brad Childress and Brett Favre, the defense in Minnesota is nasty and they still have Adrian Peterson (just need somebody to remind Childress of that). The Giants are quietly well rounded and have a good head coach in Tom Coughlin.

How the Playoffs will happen: AFC


Wild card round: Colts over Jets, Texans over Chargers.

Divisional round: Steelers over Texans, Patriots over Colts.

Conference championship: Patriots over Steelers. By my playoff tree, this is the 2 over the 1. It's two teams who seem to be there year after year but are undervalued this season. This just feels like the perfect setting for the Belichick and Brady combo to make another run (Look, I'm not happy about my prediction. I hope I'm wrong. They've both been there before and are not likable. But it's what I think will happen).

How the Playoffs will happen: NFC


Wild card round: Giants over Packers, Vikings over 49ers

Divisional round: Saints over Giants, Cowboys over Vikings

Conference championship: Saints over Cowboys. The two teams with the most talent on both sides of the ball get there as the 1 and 2 seeds. The Saints win because it's Drew Brees and Sean Payton versus Tony Romo and Wade Phillips.

SUPER BOWL!

Saints over Patriots. As everybody but the obnoxious fans in New England cheers for the Saints, they repeat and the best fans in the league get to party once again.

Awards

MVP: Drew Brees
Defensive player of the year: Troy Polamalu
Offensive player of the year: Chris Johnson
Offensive rookie of the year: C.J. Spiller
Defensive rookie of the year: Eric Berry
Coach of the year: Gary Kubiak

Fantasy Football Thoughts


I'll keep it quick, since I'm not a fantasy football expert and there are roughly 50,000 magazines out there with sleepers, busts, etc...

...people are way too excited about Ryan Mathews (RB, San Diego). Yes, LaDainian Tomlinson's skills are declining, but head coach Norv Turner was a big part of the problem because he never figured out how to use him. If he didn't know how to use LT, why should we think he'll know how to use Ryan Mathews...

...Adrian Peterson will still score points, but will continue to suffer from the same problem with Brad Childress, see the ONE carry he had in the 4th quarter of a one-possession game...

...if you're in need of QB help, go get Kyle Orton. Whether the Broncos are bottom dwellers or not, he looks sharp and will score fantasy points...

...if your league overlooked Clinton Portis (RB, Washington), keep an eye on him. There is always the big "if" with his health, but he should be more productive now that he's reunited with Mike Shanahan.